Saturday, August 17, 2013

40 Games and 40 Nights

                    The first half of the 2011 season was a real turning point in the Pirates' franchise. Since then, there have been many "turning points" or stretches of games that will be the biggest and most important "since 92." It's true the 2011 season faded in July, and the 2012 season was an absolute disaster in September. The 2012 Pittsburgh Pirates currently sit with a two game lead in the National League Central on the morning of August 18 with a record of 72-50.  I am not saying there will be a "collapse" or that you should prepare for said "collapse" I am simply pointint out where everything is, and where everything is going. 


                     The Pirates have 40 games remaining, starting with the rubber match against the wild card chasing, Arizona Diamondbacks. Take a look at some breakdowns about the remaining games on the schedule.


- 40 Games Total (18 Home/22 Road)   Pirates Home Record 42-21..Road 30-29

- 12 Series (5 Home, 7 Road)

- 25 Games remaining against the NL Central. ( Reds 6, Cardinals 6, Cubs 7, Brewers 6)

- 12 Games against the NL West.    9-11 record against NL West

- 16 Games against teams over .500 or in playoff contention

- 3 Games with NL West leader Texas. Pirates' interleague record is 12-5

- 13 afternoon game. Pirates have 24-21 day game record. 48-29 Night.

     
                 As you can see, there is no sugarcoating what the Pirates have to do. The Pirates are not a great road team, but they have slightly more games on the road, including a 7 game road trip against the Padres and Giants. Despite the bad records of each team, the Bucs have not fared well against the division overall. The Bucs will also face perhaps their toughest road trip of the season during the September 6-11 span against the Cardinals and Rangers.


               Those points above are simply facts about where the Pirates are, but its obvious what the Pirates need to do, and that is play better than they have the past week. After sweeping the lowly Marlins, the Bucs have dropped 6 of 8, including two tough ones to the team on their heels, the Cardinals.  Through it all, the Pirates still hold a lead over St. Louis and Cincinnati, but heading into the last month and a half, losing 6 of 8 won't fly.


                 The Pirates have some serious concerns heading into these last 40 games.  The pitching is "regressing" a tad.  Jeff Locke has been the one starter that has been around since opening day, and has done better than anyone could have dreamed.  Is he tired, or are some teams starting to figure him out? I'd say a little of both.  Locke's recent trends are disturbing, going 0-1 in five starts, and failing to finish six innings in any of those starts.  He has also allowed 40 hits and 17 walks in his last five outings.  It is probably too soon to make a deal of AJ Burnett, but after his complete game masterpiece on August 4, he has had two poor outings in which he allowed 5 earned runs in both games. Gerrit Cole had an impressive start in his last outing, but how many more does he have left in him?   He has pitched more this season, than he ever has in his life.  Cole is almost assuredly heading for the bullpen eventually. So there it is. The Pirates have a pitching staff in flux heading into the most important 40 games they have had in a while


Is it heading for sudden doom?  I'm not saying that.  An experienced veteran, Wandy Rodriguez, will be back, and hopefully in good enough form to make an impact.  If Clayton Kershaw and Matt Harvey weren't real people, Francisco Liriano would win the Cy Young. He's been that good, and having him around is a great thing moving forward. AJ Burnett had two bad starts, but seeing his role on this team, he's still in line for some big starts.  Jeff Locke should not be written off just yet either, he could be due for a skip in the rotation, and could be good as new.  A lot is to be said about this rotation, but Jeanmar Gomez and Brandon Cumpton could see some starts during September callus, and they have had some big performances this season.


Offensively, nothing has changed. It's inconsistent, and most guys are week to week in terms of being good hitters. Can Cutch carry this team down the stretch, unlike last season? I certainly think so.  For many people saying this was a "down season" for Cutch (something I never understood) the guy looks like an MVP in every sense of the term. Starling Marte makes you want to party or throw your remote through the TV, it just depends on the play. Pedro can mash home runs, and pitchers have to respect him for it. Walker has been dead red hot in August.   But after that is truly concerning.  You can live with Martin and Mercer for the offense they provide for their respective positions. But First Base?  Right Field?    Its ugly, and a rotating door of Jose Tabata, Garrett Jones, Gaby Sanchez, Andrew Lambo, Josh Harrison, Alex Presley, and Travis Snider have all failed miserably thus far.   Jones can still get hot. Lambo deserves a chance, but other than that, it is a real problem for this team.


These 40 games will not only define this season, but it could define a lot of people's career's and tenures and this era of Pirates baseball, like Hurdle and Huntington. We have been at this juncture in the past three seasons many times, as sports writers, fans, radio hosts, and bloggers love to say, "this is the biggest game/series/stretch since 1992." But no, THIS stretch is. THESE 40 games are. The city is riding on it, and baseball has never been so important in this town than it will be over these next 40 games.  The doubters are waiting for a collapse, the fans are hoping for the best, and the baseball world is watching.  Your move, Pirates.